If you are trying to work out what your Dubai Hills villa is worth this month, the published numbers are little help, because they do not agree. One market guide has values up about 1 per cent over the year. Bayut has asking prices up a little over 2 per cent. A ValuStrat valuation index reportedly has a typical villa down around 8 per cent year on year. Same estate, same month, three different answers. Here is why that happens, and what the confirmed Land Department sales actually show.
Why the figures disagree
None of those numbers is simply wrong. They measure different things. A portal figure, like Bayut's, is an asking price, what sellers hope to get, not what anyone paid. A valuation index, like ValuStrat's, models a typical home and can move several points on method alone. An average sale price is pulled around by a few very large deals.
Dubai Hills villas are a thin market, where a busy month is a few dozen sales. So one AED 63m mansion changing hands lifts the average for the whole estate, while most streets do not move at all. The headline rises and falls on a handful of trades. Your own home usually does neither.
What actually sold in October
Here is the reliable version. Six villa sales reached the Land Department register in Dubai Hills in October, at a median of about AED 3,051 per square foot, roughly 9.7 per cent above September. That rise is real, but the median hides a wide spread. Family villas in Sidra changed hands from about AED 8.7m to AED 10.1m, while the top of the month was a AED 63m mansion in Fairway Vistas and a AED 43.5m home in Majestic Vistas. Strip those two out and the picture is much flatter. That is the trouble with one number for a whole estate.
Every confirmed sale, community by community, is on my Dubai Hills sold prices page.
What it means for your home
For a valuation you can act on, ignore the index and the portal average. They describe the estate, not your villa. I price your specific home against confirmed sales of the same community, type and plot size, then read the building and the plot for the real cost of any work. That is the number that holds up when a buyer's agent checks it, and it is the one worth knowing before you list or make an offer.
Want it for a specific villa? Send me the community and the type and I will set the confirmed comparables against it. More on the method in how to value a Dubai Hills villa, or get in touch. Thinking of selling? Start with selling your villa.
Questions people ask
What is the average price per square foot in Dubai Hills in October 2026? Across the six confirmed Land Department villa sales in October, the median was about AED 3,051 per square foot, roughly 9.7 per cent above September. Treat it as a broad gauge, not a valuation: it spans a family villa near AED 8.7m and a AED 63m mansion.
Why do Dubai Hills price reports give different numbers? Because they measure different things. Portal figures are asking prices, valuation indices model a typical home, and averages are pulled by a few large sales. For your own home, a like-for-like confirmed sale is the only reliable guide.
Are Dubai Hills villa prices rising or falling? It depends which measure you take, which is the point. On confirmed October sales the per-square-foot median rose on September, while one valuation index reportedly shows a year-on-year fall. For your villa, price it against its own confirmed comparables.